Targeting pitchers with ERAs significantly higher than their FIP could uncover sleepers. FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) incorporates strikeouts, walks and home runs while stripping out the randomness of balls in play. On occasion, however, perhaps due to factors outside their control (poor bullpen, bad luck on balls in play), some of those pitchers have high prior-year ERAs. Targeting pitchers with ERAs significantly higher thanĪll else being equal, you're going to want to target pitchers who miss bats and avoid free passes.
Here are five things I consider in setting my starting pitching draft board:Īll else being equal, you're going to want to target pitchers who miss bats and avoid free passes. In this piece, I'll share what I do to put together my starting pitching rankings. If you've picked up this magazine, there's a high likelihood that you are familiar with FIP, K/9, HR/FB rate, and BABIP. Fortunately, we now realize that win/loss record is a team-dependent statistic that provides no real predictive value for pitchers.
Each year it seemingly gets more difficult to say anything new in terms of pitcher valuation, but in fantasy leagues, it remains critical to be able to look at more than the end-of-year statistics on the back of a baseball card. Jacob deGrom was the best pitcher in the game, Aaron Nola became an ace and Blake Snell took his swinging-strike rate from 10.8% to an elite 15.1% and won the AL Cy Young Award.
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Another year, another Dodgers World Series loss, and another year of emerging and declining starting pitchers.
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